Today’s mortgage and refinance rates: November 14, 2022 | Rates hold steady after last week’s drop

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Last week was a good week for mortgage rates, and they are holding up today. Rates fell more than 50 basis points after Thursday’s consumer price index report showed inflation finally slowing.

In December, the Federal Reserve will meet again to discuss another hike in the federal funds rate, and at present, markets are widely expecting a smaller increase of 50 basis points after four consecutive hikes. of 75 points.

If inflation continues to fall and the Fed is able to slow its pace of rate hikes, it could still achieve a so-called “soft landing”, where it slows the economy enough to bring inflation under control, but not to the point of causing a recession. .

But a month of weak inflation readings is unlikely to pivot the Fed from its aggressive stance. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the central bank was watching for a sustained slowdown before considering changing course, and noted in his press conference after the November meeting that it was “very premature “to consider suspending its efforts.

As long as the Fed continues to raise rates, mortgage rates will likely remain high. But they might not rise much more this year, and they will likely start falling in 2023.

Mortgage rates today

Mortgage refinance rates today

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Projection of mortgage rates for 2023

Mortgage rates started to recover from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and have risen more than three percentage points so far in 2022. They will likely remain near current levels for the remainder of 2022.

But many forecasts predict that rates will start falling next year. In their latest forecast, Fannie Mae researchers predicted that rates are currently peaking and that 30-year fixed rates will drop to 6.2% by the end of 2023.

The Mortgage Bankers Association also noted that a recession in the first half of 2023 could cause rates to drop even faster. He currently estimates that there is a 50% chance that a mild recession will materialize next year.

The decline in mortgage rates in 2023 depends on the Federal Reserve’s ability to control inflation.

Over the past 12 months, the consumer price index has increased by 7.7%. This is only a slight slowdown from the previous month’s numbers, meaning the Fed will likely need to continue to aggressively raise fed funds rates to bring prices down significantly.

As inflation slows, mortgage rates will likely start to come down as well. If the Fed acts too aggressively and engineer a recession, mortgage rates could fall further than currently forecast. But rates are unlikely to fall to the historic lows that borrowers have enjoyed over the past two years.

When will real estate prices go down?

House prices are starting to drop, but we probably won’t see huge drops, even in a recession.

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows prices are still up year-over-year, although they fell on a monthly basis in July and August. Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to fall 1.5% in 2023, while the MBA expects prices to rise 2.8% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024.

Skyrocketing mortgage rates have pushed many promising buyers out of the market, slowing demand for home purchases and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates could start falling next year, taking some of that pressure off. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely prevent prices from falling too far.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Fixed and Variable Rate Mortgages

Fixed rate mortgages lock in your rate for the life of your loan. Variable rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate increases or decreases periodically.

ARMs typically start out with lower rates than fixed rate mortgages, but ARM rates can increase after your initial introductory period is over. If you plan to move or refinance before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it’s a good idea to consider whether your budget could support a higher monthly payment.

Fixed rate mortgages are a good choice for borrowers looking for stability, as your monthly principal and interest payments won’t change for the life of the loan (although your mortgage payment may increase if your taxes or insurance increases).

But in exchange for this stability, you will take a higher rate. It may seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates go up again in a few years, you might be happy to have a locked-in rate. And if rates tend to drop, you may be able to refinance for a lower rate.

How does an adjustable rate mortgage work?

ARMs begin with an introductory period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once this period has elapsed, it will begin to adjust periodically – usually once a year or once every six months.

How much your rate changes depends on the index used by the ARM and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index used by their ARMs, and this rate can move up or down depending on current market conditions.

Margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with several lenders to see which offers the lowest margin.

ARMs also come with limits on how much modification they can make and how high they can go. For example, an ARM can be limited to a 2% increase or decrease each time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.

Should I get a HELOC? Advantages and disadvantages

If you’re looking to tap into the equity in your home, a HELOC might be the best way to do it right now. Unlike a cash-out refinance, you won’t have to get a new mortgage with a new interest rate, and you’ll likely get a better rate than with a home equity loan.

But HELOCs don’t always make sense. It is important to consider the pros and cons.

HELOC Benefits

• Only pay interest on what you borrow
• They usually have lower rates than alternatives, including home equity loans, personal loans and credit cards
• If you have a lot of equity, you could potentially borrow more than you could get with a personal loan.

Against HELOC

• Rates are variable, which means your monthly payments could increase
• Withdrawing equity from your home can be risky if the value of the property drops or you fail to repay the loan
• The minimum withdrawal amount may be more than you wish to borrow

Molly Grace

mortgage reporter